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THE SOFTWARE FOR STRATEGIC PORTFOLIO STEERING

From idea to impact. With business cases you can trust.

Whether innovation project, investment, or transformation program: Bayescase turns ideas into robust business cases, makes initiatives comparable, and stays with them from decision to measurable results.

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Hosted in Germany
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GDPR-compliant
Bayescase
Bayescase
From idea to delivered project
Your project
Expected
+4.2 M €
Risk of loss
19%
−3.9+10.2 M €
edit_calendar
Plan
scatter_plot
Prioritize

Every initiative ranked by value and risk.

fact_check
Track actuals
tune
Steer

Plan vs. actual, remaining effort and biggest lever.

show_chart
Forecast
assignment
Report

Dashboards for board and committee.

flag
Set targets

BAYESCASE IS IDEAL FOR

Innovation management

Make early ideas decision-ready, even while data is still scarce.

Portfolio management

Allocate a limited budget across competing initiatives and justify the selection.

Program management

Reach a committed target across many measures and prove each one's contribution.

THE PROBLEM

Why do programs deliver less than they could?

−56%

Large projects deliver 56% less value than planned, on average.

McKinsey & Oxford, study of 5,400 IT projects

01

The best ideas never make it into the portfolio.

The business unit knows the technology and the market, but its ideas reach the committee without a value contribution or a look at the risk. There, whoever delivers numbers wins, not whoever has the greatest potential.

02

Running initiatives stay below their potential.

After approval, no metrics or the wrong ones get tracked. Nobody sees whether the business case still holds, nobody can steer in time. Impact is left on the table, and afterwards nobody knows exactly where it was lost.

THE CONSEQUENCE

At year end, decision-makers ask what the program achieved. Without a defensible answer, the program budget is the first to be cut next year.

THE SOLUTION

One business case per initiative. Everything else follows.

Calculated transparently and comparably, from innovation case to savings measure. Prioritization, steering, and reporting are derived from it automatically instead of being maintained in four separate tools.

High-quality business cases in minutes, not weeks

Every idea reaches the committee decision-ready, even with little data.

Compare and prioritize initiatives objectively

It becomes clear which initiatives deserve the budget.

Continuously steer targets, forecasts, and actuals

Always visible whether the promised impact is still within reach.

HOW IT WORKS

From idea to delivered project

Four steps lead from the first idea to proven results.

Model

In an AI-guided interview, the idea owner answers 10 to 15 questions per initiative, no prior knowledge required. From this, Bayescase automatically builds a complete business case: key financials, P&L, and forecast included, all in under 30 minutes.

If data is missing, the model doesn't become wrong, only more uncertain, visible as a wider range. Bayescase also shows which values actually move the result: not every number needs to be validated exactly.

Monthly price≣ AssumptionActive users≣ AssumptionCost/user≣ AssumptionRevenue× MultiplicationCosts× MultiplicationProfit− Subtraction
AI suggestions
Guided interviewQuestion 3 / 12
Agent
What's your revenue model?
Idea owner
Subscription: monthly per active user.
Critical assumptions
Active users64%
Monthly price24%
Cost/user12%

Prioritize

The entire portfolio in one view: by value (NPV) and risk, as two separate dimensions, comparable across all initiatives.

At a glance you see which initiatives should be prioritized first. If uncertainty is too high, Bayescase shows how the model can be validated in a targeted way.

01M2M3M4M5M0%15%30%45%60%RISK (UNCERTAINTY)VALUE (NPV)Your project
Your project
As of today
NPV
4.2 M €
Uncertainty
15%
Range
−3.9 to 10.2 M €
Peak Exposure
2.4 M €
Bubble size = capital tied up (Peak Exposure)

Steer

The approved business case is not the end of the calculation but the baseline for steering. KPI tracking runs automatically, optionally connected to your own systems, or the business unit maintains the actuals directly in the model.

Bayescase shows the plan-vs-actual comparison and automatically recalculates forecasts, including the probability of reaching the planned target. When plans drift, it becomes visible which lever closes the gap to plan most effectively.

Your project
Savings per year
ACTUALSFORECASTTarget
⌀ 1.22 M €Target · 1.20 M €Target missedTarget hit
54%
Target uncertainTarget likelihood
Biggest levers to target
Impact on annual savings per +1% of the lever
Adoption rate+180 k€
Change-request scope−120 k€
Operating costs−60 k€

Report

Dashboards and export to Excel, PDF and PowerPoint, including all inputs and clear calculation logic. In a few clicks ready for the next steering committee.

Every value in the report traces back to an input in the model. Every follow-up question answered in seconds instead of digging through the Excel history afterwards.

Report. Investment analysis
Your project
IRR
42%
ROI
3.4 ×
over 5 years
Payback
24 mo.
19% payback risk
Investment
2.4 M €
over 2 years
Net present value (NPV)
−4M04M8M12MLossØ
Expected
4.2 M €
Range
−3.9 to 10.2 M €
Assumption
Baseline
Investment
Development cost
per year
00.6 - 1.2 M €
Adoption rate
0%30 - 60%
Savings per transaction
03 - 6 €
Service transactions
per year
150 - 400 k150 - 400 k
ExportExcel, PowerPoint, PDF
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THE OUTCOME

What changes for the company

Budget flows into the strongest initiatives.

The portfolio is prioritized by value and risk. Every budget decision comes with a justification that stands up to questioning.

Deviations surface early, not at year end.

Current forecasts show where to steer while there is still time to change course.

The impact of every program is provable.

At year end it is clear what each initiative delivered. That secures budget and backing for the next one.

FAQ

Common questions

Most business cases today live in Excel: every file built differently, assumptions clear only to their author, and after a few weeks three versions circulate and nobody knows which one counts. Bayescase calculates every initiative with the same logic and runs a Monte Carlo simulation for each case, which Excel cannot do. And there is always exactly one current version.

PPM tools organize the operational project work: schedules, resources, status. Bayescase answers the strategic questions before and after: which initiatives are worth the budget, and are they delivering the promised impact? Bayescase is built for program management, not project management.

A language model helps with drafting, but in the end it lets Excel do the math, with the same problems: not comparable, not traceable, and nobody can be sure everything is correct. In Bayescase, the calculation logic is built in, tested, and the same for every initiative.

No. Whoever builds the case, whether business unit, PMO, or project lead, answers normal business questions in the guided interview, not statistics questions. The math works in the background. That is exactly the point of Bayescase: democratizing business cases and making the math behind them accessible to everyone.

Yes, if the uncertainty is honestly part of the calculation. A single number suggests a precision that early initiatives do not have yet. Bayescase therefore calculates with ranges: they show the realistic spectrum of possible outcomes and make the risk quantifiable. That makes even early initiatives assessable in a defensible way, and with every validated assumption the range narrows.

Yes. Bayescase is simple enough for business users and powerful enough for senior controllers: solid statistics, fully traceable and defensible, even in front of the CFO. Every number traces back to the single assumption behind it, and plan, actuals, and forecast come from one source.

Behind Bayescase GmbH are Alexander Gutzler (ex Danaher) and Lukas Mayer (ex Celonis). Bayescase combines experience from innovation projects at Fortune 500 companies with modern statistics and AI. Built and hosted in Germany.

THE NEXT PORTFOLIO REVIEW

Always the right decision, justified and defensible.

Experience Bayescase in 30 minutes, on a case of your own.

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