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FOR PROJECT CONTROLLING AND PMO

One model to
Prioritize, Steer, and Report.

Bayescase automatically models every project as a probabilistic financial model. One shared source instead of ten Excel spreadsheets. From it you prioritize, steer, and report: with a confidence interval instead of a single number, traceable and reliable across the whole portfolio.Without days of Excel work.

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Bayescase
Bayescase
Probabilistic · Live · Collaborative
edit_calendar
Plan
scatter_plot
Prioritize

Every project ranked by value and risk.

fact_check
Track actuals
tune
Steer

Plan vs. actual, remaining effort and biggest lever.

show_chart
Forecast
assignment
Report

Dashboard and export: every number explainable and defensible.

flag
Set targets

THE PROBLEM

Outdated. Inconsistent. Falsely precise.

Three problems with the same root cause: there is no single, live source that delivers reliable numbers including their uncertainty.

update_disabledOutdated
32%

of controllers say their results are often outdated and therefore useless.

No surprise, since actuals are gathered manually from the project team, ERP, and time tracking - project by project, days every month.

Source: BARC study “The Future of Planning”
call_splitInconsistent
33%

don't trust their own planning or forecasting.

Hardly surprising when every project has its own Excel logic and the numbers contradict each other between the project team, controlling, and management.

Source: BARC study “The Future of Planning”
trending_downFalsely precise
56%

less value than planned is what large projects deliver on average.

A single forecast number hides uncertainty completely. The result: the same surprise every time, because it was never visible how wide the range behind the average actually was.

Source: McKinsey & Oxford study, 5,400 IT projects
Forecast todaySingle value
4.2M €
update_disabledBased on last quarter's data.
call_splitOr maybe 4.5 M € (depending on which Excel I trust).
blur_onLooks precise - and hides the uncertainty completely.
arrow_forward
With Bayescase: the same number, made credibleProbability distribution
Live
0 €P5-3.9 M4.2 M €Expected value4.2 MP9510.2 M
± 4.3 M €
Uncertainty (σ)
81%
positive outcome

The expectation stays 4.2 M €, but now it is visible that 90% of outcomes lie between -3.9 and 10.2 M €, and the result turns negative with a 19% probability.

HOW IT WORKS

One solution for four jobs.

At the center is a single probabilistic financial model per project. Prioritization, steering, and reporting are derived from it automatically instead of being maintained in four separate tools.

Model

In an AI-guided interview, the project team answers 10-15 questions per project - no prior knowledge required. From this, Bayescase automatically builds a complete, transparent financial model: key financials, P&L, and forecast included, all in under 30 minutes.

If data is missing, the model doesn't become wrong, only more uncertain, visible as a wider confidence interval. Bayescase also shows which values actually move the result: not every number needs to be validated exactly.

Monthly price≣ AssumptionActive users≣ AssumptionCost/user≣ AssumptionRevenue× MultiplicationCosts× MultiplicationProfit− Subtraction
AI suggestions
AI interviewQuestion 3 / 12
Agent
What's your revenue model?
Project team
Subscription: monthly per active user.
Critical assumptions
Active users64%
Monthly price24%
Cost/user12%

Prioritize

The entire portfolio in one view: by value (NPV) and risk, as two separate dimensions.

At a glance you see which projects should be prioritized first. If uncertainty is too high, Bayescase shows how the model can be validated in a targeted way.

025M50M75M100M0%15%30%45%60%UNCERTAINTYVALUE (NPV)Portal relaunch
Portal relaunch
Customer self-service portal
NPV
76 M €
Uncertainty
10%
NPV 90% interval
63 - 89 M €
Peak Exposure
2.4 M €
Bubble size = capital tied up (Peak Exposure)

Steer

The project team maintains the actuals directly in the model. Bayescase shows the plan-vs-actual comparison and automatically recalculates forecasts across all projects - including the probability of hitting target: how likely is it to actually reach the planned goal?

When there are deviations, Bayescase shows which lever closes the gap to plan most effectively, so you can steer with impact.

Annual revenue
ACTUALSFORECASTTarget
⌀ 1.22 M €Target · 1.20 M €Target missedTarget hit
54%
Target uncertainProbability of hitting target
Biggest levers to target
Impact on annual revenue per +1% of the lever
Senior-team utilization+180 k€
Change-request scope−120 k€
Supplier prices−60 k€

Report

Dashboards and export to Excel, PDF & PowerPoint, including all inputs and clear calculation logic. In a few clicks ready for the next steering committee.

Every value in the report traces back to an input in the model. Every number is explainable, every follow-up question answered in seconds instead of digging through the Excel history afterwards.

Report. Investment analysis
AI MRI scan module
IRR
296%
ROI
3.4 ×
over 5 years
Payback
24 mo.
14% payback risk
Investment
12.4 M €
over 2 years
Net present value (NPV)
085M170M255MLossØ
Expected
81 M €
Range
−13 to 222 M €
Assumption
Baseline
Investment
Development cost
per year
05 - 25 M €
Adoption rate
0%15 → 35%
Price per scan
04 - 10 €
Addressable MRI scans
per year
25 - 70 M25 - 70 M
ExportExcel, PowerPoint, PDF

READY FOR YOUR NEXT REPORT?

Your next report: current, unambiguous, reliable.

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