ABOUT US
BETTER DECISIONS THROUGH
QUANTIFIED UNCERTAINTY
OUR STORY
Greetings from Mannheim
We are a small startup from Mannheim, Germany, founded in 2025.
In our previous jobs, we kept running into the same problem: business cases and decision proposals looked "precise" but were built on shaky assumptions, scattered Excel files and plenty of hidden uncertainty. The result was predictable: slow decisions, endless alignment loops and outcomes that didn't deliver what the numbers had promised.
Bayescase is our answer to that. It is a decision tool that turns business cases into a structured model, compares scenarios and makes uncertainty visible using ranges and Monte Carlo simulation. With AI support, you build the calculation logic faster and focus on the questions that truly matter: which option is most likely to win, or which data you should gather next to decide with confidence.
Our goal is simple: a faster path to a reliable decision and a single, trustworthy source for assumptions, scenarios, KPIs and forecasts.
MEET THE BAYESCASE TEAM
OUR FOUNDERS
Alexander Gutzler
Founder & CEO
M.Sc. Bioprocess Engineering at KIT Karlsruhe
- Previously Senior Product Manager at Cytiva, responsible for cloud-native products from product discovery to go-to-market
- Solid technical background in software development, statistical methods, simulation & digital twins, with experience in both startup and enterprise environments
Lukas Mayer
Co-Founder & COO
M.Sc. Industrial Engineering at KIT Karlsruhe
- Previously Enterprise Account Executive at Redis, Sprinklr and Celonis, selling complex, business-critical platforms to C-level decision-makers
- Proven expertise in enterprise sales cycles, value-based selling and GTM execution, combining scale-up speed with enterprise rigor
OUR VISION
Turning uncertainty into
a competitive advantage
We want business decisions to get better not despite, but precisely because of, an understanding of uncertainty. Bayescase sets the global standard for business cases: transparent, data-driven and reliable.
OUR MISSION
Simulate, Compare, Decide
in minutes
We are building Bayescase, a SaaS platform for probabilistic business cases. Powered by AI and Monte Carlo simulation, teams can run through thousands of scenarios in minutes, surface the key value drivers, quantify risks and identify the decisive data. We replace spreadsheet chaos with a single, trustworthy source for decisions, targets, forecasts and portfolio reporting.
WHAT WE BELIEVE
Our Core Principles
We treat uncertainty as information
We don't pretend the future is a single number. Ranges, probabilities and the question "What would have to be true?" are real foundations of a decision. We are passionate about making uncertainty visible, because that is exactly where better strategy begins.
We decide based on facts, not volume or gut feeling
Strong opinions are welcome. But decisions have to earn their place. We rely on evidence, clear assumptions and measurable impact, so that decisions are based on what is true (or most likely), not on what is argued the loudest.
Transparency is non-negotiable
If you can't explain a business case, you can't stand behind it. We build for traceability: inputs, logic, scenarios and the why behind every result. No black boxes, no "trust me" spreadsheets.
Decision science should be accessible
Monte Carlo, statistics and modeling should require neither a PhD nor a fragile Excel monster. We believe powerful methods should feel natural: intuitive in everyday use, precise under the hood and available to everyone who is responsible for outcomes.
Want to work with us?
We are always looking for talented people who share our passion for better decisions. Get in touch. We'd love to hear from you.
Contact us