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PROBABILISTIC BUSINESS CASES FOR STRATEGIC DECISIONS

Your spreadsheet can't do this.

Go beyond single-point estimates. Model thousands of scenarios in minutes and see what actually drives your results.

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Enterprise-grade security
app.bayescase.com
Decision
New Product Launch Strategy
Scenarios
18-month revenue forecast
Baseline
Continue with current product portfolio
$15.4M($11.9M – $18.9M)
Launch & SunsetRecommended
Launch new product, phase out legacy
$24.7M($20.3M – $29.1M)
Launch & Coexist
Launch new product alongside legacy
$22.2M($19.2M – $25.2M)
Recommendation: Launch & Sunset
93% probability of exceeding baseline
+60%
vs baseline

WHY BAYESCASE

From Shifting Numbers to Confident Decisions

You're expected to commit fast, but key inputs are missing or contradictory. Waiting for perfect data stalls momentum, while rushing creates avoidable risk.

Bayescase turns assumptions into ranges, runs Monte Carlo simulations, and recommends the option with the highest expected value. It also shows confidence, downside, and which data would change the decision.

Single numbers signal false precision. Stakeholders challenge assumptions, meetings drift into debate, and forecasts get discounted, making it harder to secure budget, align teams, or act.

Model inputs as ranges and distributions, then see expected values and confidence intervals. Bayescase makes best/base/worst outcomes explicit, with probabilities, so reviews turn into decisions.

Plans live in spreadsheets, goals in slides, and actuals in BI. Numbers get re-keyed, versions drift, and every cycle wastes hours reconciling what’s true.

Bayescase centralizes assumptions, scenarios, goals, actuals, and forecasts in a shared calculation model. No copy-paste, full traceability, and everyone reports from the same source.

When likelihoods and trade-offs aren't explicit, meetings turn into opinion battles. Pet projects persist as sunk costs override updated data, delaying decisions until opportunities pass and resources are committed.

Bayescase shows probabilities of hitting targets and what must be true for success. Compare initiatives side by side, fund likely winners, and retire long shots early.

<15 minTo build a first probabilistic business case
>10KOutcomes modeled in seconds
OneSource of truth for plans, goals, and actuals

CAPABILITIES

Everything You Need to make Data-Driven Decisions

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Build business cases fast

Use AI to scaffold calculations, propose realistic assumption ranges, and validate logic.

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Scenario modeling

Create what-if scenarios for any decision and compare outcomes side-by-side.

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Uncertainty and value drivers

Identify the assumptions with the greatest impact on outcomes, ranked by sensitivity.

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Goal setting and tracking

Set probability-based goals, define KPI targets, and track progress against plan.

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Actuals and forecasts

Track actuals and generate forecasts that show expected values and uncertainty.

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Ready-made reports

Auto-generate clear, audit-ready reports with uncertainty bands and P&L.

See all features →

WHO IT'S FOR

Built for Decision Makers and Those Who Support Them

See how Bayescase can empower your role to make efficient, data-driven decisions.

Executives
make strategic decisions backed by rigorous analysis
→
Finance teams
forecast cashflow and model financial scenarios
→
Sales teams
build compelling business cases that win deals
→
Product & portfolio managers
optimize products and prioritize initiatives
→
Consultants
deliver data-driven recommendations to clients
→

FAQ

Common Questions

Bayescase is purpose-built for probabilistic modeling, with native support for uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulations, and scenario comparison. Unlike spreadsheets, it provides structure that prevents errors, AI assistance for faster modeling, and automated board-ready reporting.

No. Bayescase is designed for business users. Our AI helps you define reasonable probability distributions, and the interface guides you through creating models without requiring deep statistical knowledge.

With AI assistance, you can build a comprehensive probabilistic business case in 15-30 minutes, compared to days with traditional spreadsheets.

Absolutely. We use enterprise-grade security with encryption at rest and in transit. We comply with industry standards to ensure your data is protected.

The 14-day free trial includes full access to all features: unlimited projects, AI assistance, Monte Carlo simulations, scenario comparison, and board-ready reporting. No credit card required.

Build your first case in 15 minutes

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Start building business cases that reflect reality, not wishful thinking.

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