ABOUT US
BETTER DECISIONS THROUGH
QUANTIFIED UNCERTAINTY
OUR STORY
Greetings from Mannheim
We're a small startup from Mannheim, Germany, founded in 2025.
In our previous jobs, we kept running into the same problem: business cases and decision memos looked "precise," but they were built on shaky assumptions, scattered Excel files, and a lot of hidden uncertainty. The result was predictable: Slow decisions, endless alignment loops, and outcomes that didn't match what the numbers promised.
Bayescase is our answer to that. It's a decision support tool that turns business cases into a structured model, compares scenarios, and makes uncertainty visible using ranges and Monte Carlo simulation. With AI support, it helps you build the calculation logic faster and focus on the questions that actually matter: which option is most likely to win—or what data you should collect next to decide with confidence.
Our goal is simple: a faster path to a defensible decision, and one single source of truth for assumptions, scenarios, KPIs, and forecasts.
OUR VISION
Make Uncertainty a
Competitive Advantage
We want business decisions to improve not in spite of uncertainty, but because uncertainty is understood. Bayescase sets the global standard for business cases: transparent, data-driven, and defensible.
OUR MISSION
Simulate, Compare, Decide
in Minutes
We build Bayescase, a SaaS platform for probabilistic business cases. Powered by AI and Monte Carlo simulation, teams can run thousands of scenarios in minutes, surface key value drivers, quantify risk, and identify the data that matters most. We replace spreadsheet chaos with a single source of truth for decisions, targets, forecasts, and portfolio reporting.
WHAT WE BELIEVE
Our Core Principles
We treat uncertainty as information
We don't pretend the future is a single number. Ranges, probabilities, and "what would have to be true" are real inputs to a decision. We're genuinely passionate about making uncertainty visible, because that's where better strategy starts.
We decide based on facts, not volume or vibes
Strong opinions are fine. But decisions should be earned. We push for evidence, clear assumptions, and measurable impact, so choices are made on what's true (or most likely), not what's loudest.
Transparency is non‑negotiable
If you can't explain a business case, you can't stand behind it. We build for traceability: inputs, logic, scenarios, and the why behind every result. No black boxes, no "trust me" spreadsheets.
Decision science should be accessible
Monte Carlo, statistics, and modeling shouldn't require a PhD or a fragile Excel monster. We believe powerful methods should feel natural to use: intuitive for daily work, rigorous under the hood, and available to everyone who owns outcomes.
Want to work with us?
We're always looking for talented people who share our passion for better decision-making. Get in touch—we'd love to hear from you.
Contact Us